The Official Overthinking It Lost Season 6 Prediction Thread

The Official Overthinking It Lost Season 6 Prediction Thread

Who is good? Who is evil? Who will live? Who will die? How can Hurley keep on that weight when he’s stranded on a deserted island?

The other night, I was watching the hilarious, soon-to-be-canceled sitcom “Better Off Ted” when ABC cut to commercial and told me something that made me raise my eyebrows and say “huh.”  Did you know that Lost was coming back to ABC on February 2nd, 2010 at 9 (8 central)?  Yes, it’s true.  I didn’t believe it, myself, at first.  Fortunately, ABC decided to repeat this information four more times before the “Ted” episode ended, just so I could be sure.

Okay, actually, I did know before Tuesday that Lost was coming back.  Shocking, I know.  True, I haven’t been foaming at the mouth over the premiere like some other people, but, you know what?  I’m excited.  Really excited.

Since I started watching Lost, people have been asking me, “Is it worth it?”  Well, let me put it this way: recently, I’ve started watching The Wire, and while it’s a very, very well-made show, it just doesn’t put a smile on my face the way Lost does.  When I think about Lost, I don’t think about the gaping plot holes and the silly plot twists or the still-stupid Jack-Kate-Sawyer love triangle.  I think about the warm, fuzzy feeling I get in my stomach when I think about Ben Linus doing something evil, or how I laughed with joy when Jacob said, “What about you?” in last season’s finale, or how I chuckle and shake my head every time Jack starts to cry and scream for no good reason.  I think about Hurley, a character who I claim would make every show better.  (Seriously, how much better would the new Battlestar Galactica have been Hurley were there to say, “Dudes, maybe we should, I dunno, like, chill out a little?”)  A few weeks ago I was sitting next to a Scottish guy in a restaurant, and it took all of my energy to stop smiling from giggly thoughts of Desmond Hume.

Anyway, to those who asked me long ago if Lost was worth watching: Yes.  Yes, it is,  if you can be nonchalant about the convoluted mythology, shrug off the never-ending fate vs. free-will arguments, overlook the increasingly annoying fact that none of the characters ever seem to communicate truthfully with each other.  Seriously, forget all of that.  This is simply the most fun, addictive show on television, and I will be very sorry when it ends.

The following post includes my predictions for Lost’s final season, made in part because frequent commenter dock asked me to, and in part because I’m a predictor by nature.  I’m not necessarily a good predictor, mind you, mostly because I tend to make predictions more based on what I think would make the most dramatically-pleasing story instead of what I actually think the writers will do.  For example, before the final Harry Potter book came out, I made various predictions primarily based on what I wanted to happen.  Some of these were right—Snape is good, the final battle will be at Hogwarts—and some, like my hope that the wizards and Muggles would finally ally to take down Voldemort, were, sadly, wrong.  I don’t have the actual statistics on me, but I believe my guesses were about 7-10% accurate.  (The ego-protection center of my brain assures me that this is because J.K. Rowling wasn’t as clever as my predictions were.)

So that’s how I came up with my predictions for the final season of Lost.  I sat down (yes, literally, I did this) and came up with various things that could happen in the show, and then I listed the pros and cons, from a dramatic perspective, of each plot occurrence.

Here are my predictions.

Nice sandals.

The Goods and the Evils

Jacob: Good.  (Metaphorically going to stand in for Jesus.)

Man in Black: Not good, but not evil evil, either.  Definitely cynical and virulently anti-Jacob.  (Metaphorically, he’s going to stand in for Satan.)

Ben: Not on one side or the other.  In general, doing whatever is best for him at any given moment, which usually results in his being evil.

Eloise: Good.

Widmore: Thinks he’s on the side of good but is being manipulated to work for Man in Black.

Richard: Good, but will eventually realized he’s been manipulated by Jacob and will have a moment of pissiness towards him.

The Others: Oh, hell, I don’t know.  I’ve been thinking about them for a while, and I have come to the conclusion that I have absolute no idea who these people are and what they’re doing.  I guess my guess is that the Others are working for Jacob but are neither good nor evil; they’re just there to protect the Island at all costs—but for what reason, I can’t say.

The Dharma Initiative: Thought they were Team Good, but actually accidentally doing evil with their awful “science.”

The Losties: Flawed but ultimately on the side of good.  Jacob (or Jacob through the Others) wrote up the lists of “good people” to keep them out of the way; the real heroes are, and were always meant to be, the flawed, but still redeemable, people on the plane.  That’s part of the “rules.”  Jacob wants to prove that humanity is good and can be redeemed (even though they have free will), but he’s not allowed to stack the deck and only bring “good” people to the Island.  He says to MIB, Okay, I’ll bring some of the worst people I can find to the Island, and I’ll show you how good they can be!

Christian Shephard: I keep going back and forth on this one.  It all comes down to the question, How do I want the show to end?  Is it more dramatic for Christian to turn out to be good, and Jack ends up reuniting with him, or evil, in which case the climax of Jack’s story will be when he defeats his father and realizes he doesn’t need to be bound by him anymore.  While I like that second “screw you, dad” ending a lot (especially since it dovetails nicely with the “free will” theme that Jacob supports), my gut is telling me that Christian is a good guy.

The Monster: I personally don’t think we’re going to get a straight answer from the show on what the Monster is, beyond, “It is a security system for the Temple, and it’s been around since [insert date/past event here].”  I kind of like the idea that the Monster is some mysterious Island spirit that is never fully explained.  That said, it does seem like the Monster and the Man in Black have similar powers to take over dead bodies/the forms of dead people, so I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if it turned out that the Monster was simply one of the MIB’s forms.

The Island: Neither good nor evil.  It’s just the Island.

Dead is dead...

The Dead List

People who will die before the series ends:

Ben: He must die gloriously—either sacrificing himself for the greater good so he can piss someone off  OR after he makes himself into a semi-omnipotent demi-god a la the second-to-last boss in any Final Fantasy game.

Jack: I am counting on this being the ending of Lost–not only because it would finally make Jack into the real tragic hero he’s only pretended to be since the beginning of the series but also because I don’t see a future for him after the show.  Seriously, what could Jack do after this?  Go back to being a doctor?  Move to Thailand and get another tattoo?

Widmore: See my “redemptive death” theory, above.  I think he’ll die relatively early in the final season, and we won’t see the death blow.  The characters—including Penny, Desmond, and possibly Ben—will walk into the room and see him dying on the floor.

Christian Shephard: I mean, sure, he’s dead already, but I mean he will disappear, become un-un-dead, no more Christian Shephard in any form, he moves onto the next world, etc.

The Man in Black

Ilana (and possibly Bram, but who cares about Bram?)

Pierre Chang: We will see the events that actually led up to his death—whether it is by Purge or by some other means.

The Monster: Well, he probably won’t die, but he may disappear, never to be seen again.  (The Monster tips his hat, says, “Clicky clack my work here is done clickity click clack,” and flies off into the sunset.)

A majority (if not all) of the Others: Preferably by something akin to a flaming arrow attack.

...or is it?

People who will make it through the series alive:

Juliet: Assuming the reset occurred–but she will spend 99.9-100% of the final season off screen hanging out with her sister and having a happy, Others-free life.

Sawyer & Kate: Who will end up together, because A) Jack will be dead and Juliet will either be dead or won’t have her memories, which leaves only these two sides of the love-quadrangle in the equation.  And, B) it would be interesting to see grown-up versions of these once-immature characters try to have a serious, adult relationship in the real world.

Hurley: Seriously, if he dies, the show is dead to me.  I’m not sure if it’s too sappy, but what the hell.  I see him ending up back with Alive!Libby at the end of the last episode.  I mean, they’re not going to get married or anything, but he’ll run into her in the real world and start walking toward her.  Then he’ll see The Numbers written behind her on a billboard or something.  He’ll hesitate (bad luck!), but then say, “Hell with it,” and go ask her out for a cup of coffee.

Penny: I want to say “happily ever after with Desmond and a bunch of adorable children,” but I’m not completely sure yet.

Walt: But we will barely see him throughout the final season, and his “specialness” will be mostly ignored by the show.

Good!Locke: Assuming realLocke somehow returns to life (big assumption, I know, but I’m going to make it), I don’t see him dying again.  Once was enough, thank you.  I’d like to see him making peace with the fact that he’s not special and doesn’t need to be.

Richard: But he’ll become mortal, somehow.

Sayid: Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but he’s had such a death wish over the past two seasons that I think it would be more dramatically-interesting if he lived through the show and decided to start rebuilding his life as civilian: “I’m Sayid Jarrah, and I’m running for state senator.”

Lapidus: ‘Cause he’s too cool to die.

Not sure yet:

Sun & Jin, Rose & Bernard, Miles, Desmond, Claire, Eloise.

Random Guesses

  • We will get a long, long ago flashback sequence: either from the 1800s (the long-awaited Richard flashback) or from even earlier (i.e., ancient Egypt times: the Island flashback).
  • All of the “rules” and “loopholes” mentioned by Jacob, MIB, Ben, and Widmore have to do with time loops.  The rules literally could not be broken because it would cause a temporal paradox and cause them all to die.
  • In the fate vs. free will match up, free will will win.
  • In the science vs. faith match up, both will win.  (I want Jacob to say something like, “Why do you think these things are mutually exclusive?”)

Bonus Prediction From My Dad, Who Has Seen Zero Episodes of This Show

The title “Lost” is figurative as well as literal.  At the end of the show, all of the characters will “find themselves.”  Aww, ain’t that nice.

Sawyer Will Say “Sonofabitch” This Many Times


Jack Will Cry This Many Times


And, finally,

If I Were Writing the Season Premiere, Here’s How It Would Start

The scene: Oceanic Flight 815 on the day of the crash.  Starts the same way it did before: flight attendants trying to get Charlie out of the bathroom, Jack’s talking to Rose while Bernard’s using the toilet.  The plane suddenly hits turbulence and takes a nosedive.

Then the plane doesn’t crash.  Reset, bitches!

After the near-crash, Charlie is forcibly dragged out of the bathroom after he does his drugs.  Jack and Rose will look at each other, smile, and shrug.  Bernard will return from his own bathroom break.  Sawyer looks across the plane, where he sees a blonde woman who looks sorta like Juliet.  He starts crying but doesn’t know why.  Kate sees Claire and starts screaming, “You can’t give him away!  You can’t!”  Hurley says something funny and ironic about the situation.  Air Marshal guy forces Kate into her seat and demands, “What do you think you’re doing?  Do you know that woman?”  “I don’t know,” says Kate.

Then the camera pans through the airplane, stopping briefly on Locke, Sun & Jin, Boone & Shannon, etc.  Bernard leaves the back bathroom and returns to his seat.  The camera pans from the bathroom area to the very last row in the back of the plane.  Sitting there, looking highly unamused, is the Man in Black.

[What are your Lost season 6 predictions, hopes, questions, fears?  The comment section below is your playground.  Just, no spoilers for season 6.  If you know something spoilery about it, don’t say it here.]

23 Comments on “The Official Overthinking It Lost Season 6 Prediction Thread”

  1. Kevin #

    @mlawski: as a huge fan of your original Lost recaps, I can’t wait to see not only how Season 6 progresses, but what you have to say about it.

    And as for predictions, the only “prediction” I have is a particular fear… that they (intentionally or not) leave some important questions unanswered, only because they literally have no time to answer them. Having said that, I expect it to be one hell of a ride! (I’ve also remained spoiler-free, so wherever they go, I literally have no idea where it will be.)

    Here’s to Lost!


  2. Prest #

    I’ve been avidly following season 6 spoilers, so it would be pointless for me to join in on the prognosticating. But I will say I’m looking forward to the overthinking of the season as it airs.


  3. Eric #

    Since season 3 I’ve been betting that no matter how the chips fall, the Losties who survive will become the new Others, and the last episode will be them reacting to a new group of losties arriving (in another plane or in a battle cruiser or something), only now we have a slightly better idea of what’s at stake.


  4. mlawski OTI Staff #

    @Eric: Oh, goodness, that’s a good idea! Or what if the Losties ARE the original Others? Like, at the end of the show, Kate and Sawyer flash back to Egyptian times (but on the Island) and start making babies as “Adam and Eve” of the Others? It could happen!

    While I understand, on an intellectual level, why some Lost fans might be worried about the coming season and trying not to get their hopes up… oh man, oh man am I excited!


  5. Jon Eric #

    Long ago I gave up trying to predict where Lost is going. Now I’m just along for the ride.


  6. Tom P #

    I still can’t remember having ever seen Sawyer either on the plane or in the airport. I remain convinced there is something “special” about him we’ve still not been clued in to.

    Regardless, I don’t know if everyone (or anyone) is going to shake out to good or evil.

    It would also be nice if Jack feels just a -little- guilty for murdering all the people from the Dharma initiative so he could get conjugal visits with Kate.


  7. SeanFracture #

    @Tom P – Our man James was indeed on the plane, seat 15D. I really don’t think he’s any more (or less) special than the rest of our Losties, excepting Hurley of course, who I think might just be the (or at least a) key to the whole business.

    I second the excitement for not only the new season but also for the Overthunk experience. I can’t believe it’s so close! I’m in work and I just can’t concentrate, haha.


  8. dock #

    OMG I just wrote a huge comment, it took me like 20 minutes and I am really delaying going to class and my stupid computer went Back on the browser and destroyed the whole thing…..ARHG!

    The jist was- I got a shout out!!! Im honored!! Im making everyone I know read this article!

    My prediction- the reset works partially, but actually skewes time into two separate universes (Back to the Future 2 style) and the drama comes from those on the post crash island (Lupidus and crew) having to merge the timelines somehow before the universe gets ripped to shreds.

    Meanwhile in the no-crash universe, all the survivors are back on the plane, but still remember everything. Those who died are back, but remember nothing. Therefore Charlie is alive but still addicted to heroin. Libby is also alive but neither her nor Charlie remember Hurley, which will be a source of great pain for our poor friend. Sayyid will be alive and can rejoin his wife (yes!) but poor desmond will be back on the island having never been rescued in the boat that came for the plane crash survivors (even more sad he will remember everything, and be totally screwed again). Sawyer will remember everything and blame Jack for Juliette (who is now alive on the island and doesnt remember anything) Kate has to go to jail (a charge she previously beat and will remember beating, only to find herself found guilty this time around). Locke will be alive but remember nothing (meanwhile Post-crash evil locke will continue to be controlled by MIB). The possibilities here are great becasue of all the growth certain characters did on the island will be erased. And Jack will realize that even with the deaths of a few, those who died died somewhat happily (except Nikki/Palo but who cares about those goofballs) and those who survived are better for it. Jack will again regret his decisions.

    In the end, I agree, Jack will have to sacrifice himself to be the real tragic hero (I believe we have both thought that since season 1 or 2 Mlawski). Sayyid will probably die although I hope not, Sawyer will live because he is a survivor, and Kate will live by running because thats what she does. Jin/Sun will either live together or die together, but they will be reunited. Aaron will the be “constant” that brings the two universes back together again. Richard might die.

    Who knows though? We’re talking about LOST here. When was the last time ANY of us really knew what was going on? I do know one thing- I CANT WAIT!!! HAHAHA SEASON 6!!!


  9. Dirk Pitt #

    Your prediction for the season premier. Outstanding. If it isn’t exactly what you said it would be…ill be a little sad.


  10. Neil H #

    I posted some stuff on the old Overthinking Lost posts that I was about to dig up, but dock has mostly the same ideas as I do, except that I think only the people Jacob touched will remember what happened, and everyone else will have no idea.

    I hope Miles has as many awesome lines this season as he did last, though. He quickly became my favourite character.


  11. Gab #

    I’m saying this literally moments before the premiere starts for me on the West coast.

    I want to hope for Sayid, too, but I think he may die for the same reasons you said Jack will die in terms of life after the Island: what does Sayid have left? Makes me sad, but I’m being as realistic about it as possible. And hey, if I’m wrong, I’ll be totally and pleasantly surprised.

    I think Kate and Sawyer off the Island together won’t ever work, though, and sort of for why you think it would be interesting to see them together- but I’d say more so for Kate. See, I really think Sawyer grew up a lot during his time with Juliet, and I think the “triangle” isn’t there in his mind any more.



  12. Jon Eric #

    Hey, look at that! You got the opening scene pretty close to right!


  13. Gab #

    Dock, be honest, do you read spoiler pages or pages *other* fans that read them talk on and then come here? You’re sometimes eerily close. I mean, the idea of the dual timelines thing wasn’t remotely hinted at before the episode started- where did you come up with it?????? Granted, this comes from the perspective I’ve discussed before, meaning someone that sticks to JUST the episodes, so yeah, okay, maybe it was hinted at in one of those webisodes or podcasts or something. But still. Nice work, man. Seriously.

    Ditto what Jon Eric said, Mlawski.

    And am I the only one giddy in thinking Faraday will come back, given he got a friggin’ mini-bio during the “Final Chapter” thing? And again, this isn’t based on, like, reading cast lists or anything- just from what I saw on ABC.



  14. dock #

    @Gab- I do everything I can to avoid any and all spoilers. Half the fun is in theorizing. I must say I really enjoyed the season premiere, and it seems a lot of the predictions on this thread were eerily close. The dual timeline thing is from Back to the Future 2. If someone goes back in time and changes something, time will then skewer off and create 2 separate timelines. This is not good, because this can cause the universe to be ripped apart. However, I definitely didn’t see they would be simultaneously existing timelines. Genius! The LOST writers are just plain genius. (btw- What are the thoughts on Jacob now inhabiting Sayyid??)


  15. Eric #

    Hah! It appears that the Others and the Losties have a common enemy. My theory has some partial confirmation…


  16. Eric #

    Some additional theories:

    Ben will backstab the MiB, now that he realizes that the smoke monster basically order him to obey itself.

    the alternate universe will find that their lives without the Island turn out very badly, and eventually they get back to the island.

    There is a connection between attacking the MiB and getting attacked yourself.

    In the showdown between Fate Vs. Free Will, both Jacob and the MiB believe in free will- NO ONE champions fate.

    The MiB made a point of mentioning that the Island didn’t approve of the others moving into the Dharma compound. At the Temple, we’ll find out why they shouldn’t have.

    The Monster’s “home” is ancient Egypt


  17. mlawski OTI Staff #

    I liked my version of the premiere better. :(

    …Naw, I’m kidding. I thought this episode was great! The two timeline thing made perfect sense to me. When I was writing this prediction post, I couldn’t figure out for sure if there was going to be a reset or not. I liked the idea, but that would mean we wouldn’t see the fallout of Jacob’s murder, and that would be a huge loss of drama. Luckily, the Lost guys got the idea to split the difference, and now I get to watch two–count em, TWO-timelines! Exciting.

    The real question is, are we going to call this “Schroedinger’s Lost,” “Bizarro Lost,” or “Lost: the AU fanfic?”


  18. Tom P #

    I guess my Sawyer idea was wrong.

    I’m curious how the two timelines eventually merge. Currently they’re separated by three years. Do they eventually merge when island time (2007) catches up with divergent time (2004)?

    And I did like Charlie again almost dying on the plane. It somewhat explains why the show’s had a theme at trying to kill Charlie for the first two seasons. Most memorably when Ethan strung him up.


  19. Gab #

    Okay, so about Sayid being inhabited by MiB: I am leaning toward NO because the people at that temple surrounded it with that grey powder stuff BEFORE he woke up AND because he never left their site once proclaimed dead. You know, the powder the guy that got the wooden stake through the chest surrounded himself with that held off MiBasSmokey for a few seconds. Yeah, until Smokey decided to knock him off his feet with falling rocks- that whole thing was clearly to demonstrate how this powder stuff keeps Smokey at bay. So anyway, since Sayid was still out as they were laying the stuff out, I’m going with no, Sayid is Sayid. Plus, MiBasLocke walked past Locke’s body, so I don’t think he needs the body itself, just the form of the dead person; and that was never not Sayid’s own body in the temple, nor was there ever an opportunity for MiB to have switched with him.

    Wouldn’t it be kind of cool if Sayid was being inhabited by Jacob, though? That’s not really a prediction so much as just a “what if,” though. I find it unlikely, if only because Jacob doesn’t seem like the “type” to posses a body…

    I’d also argue, after thinking a little harder, that there are THREE timelines.

    Yes, three.

    1) The one with Locke’s body, Ben, Sun, Richard, etc., the one in which we *see* Jacob die- set in 2009 or whenever the Oceanic Six (minus Aaron) go back; 2) the one with the people that tried to do the whole bomb thing featuring Sawyer, this magic spring, and where Hurley was informed by Jacob that Jacob is dead- set in 197whatever (I have a great memory, don’t I?); and 3) the one where the bomb worked, the island is under water, and the plane lands safely in L.A.- set in 2004 (I think- when the plane took off).

    So some predictions for each:

    1)I agree that Ben will probably not side with MiB because of the whole being used thing. (Sidenote: I totally enjoyed seeing him be a tool in the exact same way he turned everybody else into tools before. I loved his ability to do that in the past, and it was awesome to see the tables turned on him, too. This MiBasLocke sounds *just like Ben*!!!) I also think Richard may be something like a Constant, meaning the thing Faraday said needs to exist for time travel, and that a lot is going to depend on him; he had acted as Jacob’s ambassador, ish, before, too, and he’s obviously a threat to MiB, so I wonder if maybe he and Ben will form some Awesome Alliance to take MiB down. This itself may result in converging timelines.

    2) Will probably center more around Hurley, like SeanFracture said, because he Sees Dead People and thus Jacob will use him as a medium a lot. Sawyer will give Kate the finger, even though Juliet is dead (SAAAAD!!!!) (and my hope with that is then Jack will reject her because he realizes she’s turning to him because it’s convenient). That paper from Jacob had all of their names on it (I think that was kind of obvious, though).

    3)I think Jack will probably fix Locke’s back. Other than that, I can’t really make any good guesses yet- lame, yeah, I know. I’m curious as to where it’s going with regards to a bunch of things, though. Shannon wasn’t on the plane, Hurley suddenly has GOOD luck, Christian’s body is missing, and Desmond WAS on the plane (and this isn’t the same as “Desmond wasn’t in the Hatch. In this timeline, there IS no Hatch, so the question is *why* was Desmond now on the plane?).

    Now, another thing to ponder between 1) and 2) is existence across timelines. Jacob was killed in 1) but also dead in 2). And Juliet says to Miles in 2) that “it worked,” insinuating her spirit or whatever somehow knows there is an alternate timeline wherein things are hunky-dory in terms of the bomb going off or not. So do Jacob and MiB exist outside of time itself, is there some temporal plane where all these timelines can be observed? Etc.

    And the conversation between Locke and Boone? DRIPPING WITH IRONY, yeah? I totally chortled to myself.

    I like “Schroedinger’s Lost” the best. ;)


  20. Tom P #

    @Gab: Okay, so about Sayid being inhabited by MiB:

    I actually assumed Sayid was being inhabited by Jacob.


  21. Kevin #

    also @Gab: there can only be two timelines (so far) — remember, when the Losties are brought forward in time before the bomb goes off, Jacob says something to the effect of “I died an hour ago” when he talks to Hurley at the van. Also, when the Temple Others launch the warning flare… everyone on the beach (Ben/Richard/Sun/etc.) see it. So everyone’s back together on the island, just in different locations, in 2007.

    I had figured Sayid = Jacob as well… but now I’m not so sure. Unless Jacob’s trying to convince everyone he’s Sayid… and the reveal won’t happen until several episodes from now, much like the FLocke reveal last season.


  22. Gab #

    @Kevin: They see it? I thought the flare was sent in daylight and the people on the beach (Richard, etc.) were in darkness whenever they were shown after Jacob’s murder… ::feels dumb:: Thanks for clearing that up for me. Sorry.


  23. Sarlinka #

    I believe the final episode will reveal that the characters all actually died on the plane and have been in purgatory this whole time, having their good weighed against their bad.
    There seems to be some game being played, between good vs. evil and/or the devil vs. God. I think the smoke monster shows you all the bad you have done in your life. I’m not sure if Jacob is good or bad, he could be an angel or death, seeing as he physically had to go and touch all of the characters that ended up on the Oceanic flight.


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