Oscar Nominations 2013
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This topic contains 17 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by 
DeanMoriarty 2 months, 3 weeks ago.
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January 10, 2013 at 1:18 pm #27618
Oscar nominations just came out:
http://oscars.nytimes.com/2013/ballot/9vgp3atz
Complain about the snubs and make predictions in this thread!
January 10, 2013 at 2:30 pm #27619Two snubs that have me upset (though only the first really surprises me):
1. “The Master” not on the Best Picture list – while I don’t think it’s deserving of the win, it definitely deserves to be in the conversation. It was an amazingly well crafted movie that stuck with me long after I left the theater. Given the pedigree and the acting nods, I’m very surprised this didn’t make the list.
2. “Looper” got nothing – I’m not surprised, but at the very least it deserved a Screenplay nod. It was original, smart and compelling, but the Academy hears “Sci-Fi” and tunes out. If you want to know why no one makes anything but sequels and comic book movies, this is why. The only commercial reason to make something that doesn’t have a built-in audience anymore is because it’s either a) very cheap or b) might get awards. This snub is just one more nail in the coffin of genre movies that aren’t written for 12-year olds.
January 10, 2013 at 6:03 pm #27623Never thought I'd hear widespread cries of "Ben Affleck was robbed," until someone broke into his house.
— Joshua Malina (@JoshMalina) January 10, 2013
January 11, 2013 at 11:14 am #27624Jazzed to see _Silver Linings Playbook_ so heavily represented. I loved that movie — although the Razzies should offer an award for “Most Misguided Marketing,” for which it should be nominated.
Of course, it seems to have zero chance of winning anything, except _maybe_ adapted screenplay. _Maybe_.
January 11, 2013 at 11:17 am #27625Also, the nominations seem to indicate “Flight” was really good. I just thought it was going to be “Unstoppable with Planes” – has anyone seen it?
January 12, 2013 at 6:40 am #27628Predictions (ranked in order of likelihood)
Best Picture: 1)Les Miserables 2) Lincoln 3) Argo 4) Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: 1) Daniel Day-Lewis 2) Hugh Jackman 3) Joaquin Phoenix 4) Bradley Cooper
Actress: 1) Jessica Chastain 2) Jennifer Lawrence 3) Naomi Watts
Actor (supporting): No idea. Everyone in this category has won an award already.
Actress (supporting): 1) Anne Hathaway 2) Amy Adams 3) Jacki Weaver
Animated: 1) Brave 2) Wreck It Ralph
Cinematography: 1) Anna Karenina 2) Life of Pi 3) Lincoln
Costume Design: 1) Anna Karenina 2) Les Miserables
Directing: 1) Beasts of the Southern Wild 2) Amour 3) Life of Pi 4) Silver Linings Playbook
January 12, 2013 at 3:37 pm #27645Cat, are you putting Les Mis at #1 because you think it’s most likely, or because it’s the one you like the most, or both?
I may or may not be picking a Les Mis fight with this question ;-)
January 12, 2013 at 7:46 pm #27646@Lee Likelihood. I have not seen any of these movies. I am a very bad film critic. The only movies new movies I’ve seen this year are ones I had to review.
January 14, 2013 at 12:43 am #27667Pete — The “Unstoppable” part of Flight is just the first act. It’s actually a character study about a man coping with his demons — addiction, deceit, his broken relationship with his son. Great performance from Denzel Washington.
January 16, 2013 at 12:56 pm #27688You know, if the first act of “Unstoppable” were the plot of “Unstoppable,” I know what the second and third acts would be:
Other, larger trains.
January 16, 2013 at 9:47 pm #27690Cat, would you change your mind about those predictions after the Golden Globes?
Oddly, I think the only category in which I saw every film involved was that of Visual Effects. And I notice all of them were in 3D in theaters. Is the the Academy making a statement?
Also, amen, Brother Ben. Looper didn’t even get a makeup nod- but there are only three movies in that category! WTH!? The Best Picture category gets inflated, but makeup is short. My eye twitches. Gr.
January 16, 2013 at 10:35 pm #27693Since my 1. and 2. choices took their categories at the Golden Globes (because they split up comedy/musical and drama) I would say no.
Still really irritated with Brave winning though.
January 18, 2013 at 1:08 pm #27711I’m pretty sure Lincoln is going to get best picture based on the fact that it hits so many Oscar sweet spots: It’s 1) a costume drama 2)about real events 3) centered around an admired historical figure and is also 5) about an “important” issue 6) that involves a lot of human suffering and 7) is “relevant” to the political issues of today.
A lot of the other movies obviously hit all of these sweet spots, but Lincoln hits more of them and “trumps” in most of them (for example I’d argue that Civil War costume drama trumps the 1970′s costume drama of Argo.)Also, none of the other noms involve the holocaust or people with mental disabilities.
January 18, 2013 at 3:27 pm #27712@DeanMoriarty I would argue that Les Miserables has the advantages of 1) being a musical 2) including a war 3) featuring human suffering (not having seen Lincoln I question how much human suffering they actually show since I’ve gotten the impression the film is mostly about political negotiations) 4) elaborate costumes and a distinct style 5) being relatively relevant as far as class issues are always relevant 6) featuring a romantic plot.
Though I agree that Lincoln has a very good shot as it focuses on a single protagonist rather than an ensemble and it seems more serious in tone.
January 21, 2013 at 8:21 pm #27761Cat,
1) I have no data to back this up, but I’m not sure musicals garner more oscariness than non-musicals.
2) I haven’t seen the movie or musical, and I might be misremembering the book, but I thought Les Mis takes place during one of the french revolutions (’48?, 32?). But not sure it matters anyway since the civil war is still an Oscar favorite war (WWII is #1, obviously, and I’m not sure what rank the civil war is in, but it’s gotta be at least in the top 5)
3)I think the whole human suffering thing is inherent in the “being about slavery” thing, but Les Mis might win on that front by inflicting it on the main characters
4) You’re right, Les Mis definitely has more Oscary costumes and styes.
5) In America a least, political compromise in pursuit of ideals feels more relevant right now than class issues.
6) I hadn’t thought of a romantic plot as helping oscar chances, but I think you’re right.
But in the end Lincoln still has 7) the penultimate Oscar trump card: good white people “saving” non-white people from bad white people. Hollywood people love this (see The Help, Dances With Wolves, Avatar)I’d like to clarify that my vigorous defense for Lincoln’s chances don’t have that much to do with my personal preferences (though I did really like Lincoln). I just feel like I’m playing a film version of Magic (“Oscar: The Gathering”?) and I think Lincoln’s built the best deck this year.
January 21, 2013 at 8:22 pm #27762Cat,
1) I have no data to back this up, but I’m not sure musicals garner more oscariness than non-musicals.
2) I haven’t seen the movie or musical, and I might be misremembering the book, but I thought Les Mis takes place during one of the french revolutions (’48?, 32?). But not sure it matters anyway since the civil war is still an Oscar favorite war (WWII is #1, obviously, and I’m not sure what rank the civil war is in, but it’s gotta be at least in the top 5)
3)I think the whole human suffering thing is inherent in the “being about slavery” thing, but Les Mis might win on that front by inflicting it on the main characters
4) You’re right, Les Mis definitely has more Oscary costumes.
5) In America a least, political compromise in pursuit of ideals feels more relevant right now than class issues.
6) I hadn’t thought of a romantic plot as helping oscar chances, but I think you’re right.
But in the end Lincoln still has 7) the penultimate Oscar trump card: good white people “saving” non-white people from bad white people. Hollywood people love this (see The Help, Dances With Wolves, Avatar)I’d like to clarify that my vigorous defense for Lincoln’s chances don’t have that much to do with my personal preferences (though I did really like Lincoln). I just feel like I’m playing a film version of Magic (“Oscar: The Gathering”?) and I think Lincoln’s built the best deck this year.
January 21, 2013 at 9:39 pm #277691) I have no data to back this up, but I’m not sure musicals garner more oscariness than non-musicals.
I have no data to back up my point either but taking a look at all the winners, there are a lot of musicals that get nominated/win in comparison to the number of musicals that get produced. Musicals feel like one of the major “genres” that the academy decides they will recognize. And with musicals you reward people for a different skill set (singing), all the production (orchestra, music, editing), and harken back to Old Hollywood.
3)I think the whole human suffering thing is inherent in the “being about slavery” thing, but Les Mis might win on that front by inflicting it on the main characters
6) I hadn’t thought of a romantic plot as helping oscar chances, but I think you’re right.
I think these two points go together. The reason I think they play such a big role is that they help the audience empathize with the characters. I mean #6 is basically the Titanic method. Don’t try and tackle large issues or historical tragedy in an abstract sense. Focus on a few characters people can connect with.
7) the penultimate Oscar trump card: good white people “saving” non-white people from bad white people. Hollywood people love this (see The Help, Dances With Wolves, Avatar)
Oh, that is true.
I don’t know. I feel like they both have good chances and it’s about how the voting breaks down.
February 25, 2013 at 3:43 pm #28153So this morning, as I ate my extra side of crow bacon, I began to think about how Argo’s win and Lincoln and ZDT’s trouncing reflects on Americans’ attitudes towards its own history.
First, let me point out my own biases: Lincoln and ZDT were my favorite movies of the year (I’ll leave my full-throated defense of ZDT as an important and effective piece of art and entertainment for some other time) I felt that this year there were really a lot of really interesting movies full of interesting things to say about all sorts of things in interesting ways. Argo, for me, was not among those. While a very solid movie, I found it far less than amazing. Which might be why it winning best picture puts me in an analytic mood.
Anyway, it struck me that these three movies were about very important moments in American history and that Lincoln and ZDT take and almost opposite approach to these comparable moments of history than Argo. These are moments where in a way, America is both the “good” and “bad” guy of the stories. Moments when America’s previous actions turned on us in horrible, tragic ways. The people in these trhee stories, people acting on their country’s behal, must weigh their various personal and national ideals and often choose between them.
ZDT and Lincoln assume that people going into these movies will see America as the “good” guy of their respective moments in history. Yet, they go on to make the case that doing what it takes to protect your principles as the “good” guy means you might come awful close to becoming the bad. In Lincoln we see men who love their country, practically throw out their principles to achieve the truer sense of freedom and equality inherent in its people compromising some of their ideals to protect of further others. In ZDT we see a woman who in trying to catch a fanatic becomes a fanatic and a system that in trying to protect Americans encourages and forgives transgressions that should never be encouraged or forgiven.
In contrast, there is Argo. The time leading up to Iranian Revolution is a time where America was, in fact, the “bad” guy. It wasn’t ignoring some scruple to save its highest ideals, or to protect itself from attack, it betrayed its founding ideal, democracy, to protect its source of oil. The movie mentions this briefly and not very powerfully (I was just reminded of the comic book thing by a co-worker) but then moves on with its story. And the story it tells is of six Americans being saved from those evil bearded Persians through nothing but guile, gumption and wit. That great little victory lets people forget about the other hundred people stuck in that embassy for a year and a half, or the fact that the US was humiliated and is still dealing with the consequences of that defeat today. Argo found a great and exciting triumph within the midst of a disaster and turned it into a familiar, thrilling story. Lincoln and ZDT took two stories that America counts as triumphs and tried to show the many nuances and sides and shadows that most people gloss over. Obviously, yesterday ave us a hint about which the Academy, at least, prefers.
So, what do you all think, is there any merit to my argument? Or has my unabashed K.Bigs fanboyism combining w/ my love of Lincoln and mild distaste for Argo’s accolades to completely cloud my reasoning and judgement? -
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