Would the recent hotel bombings have any impact on the votes?

_Slumdog Millionaire_ I suppose had Dev Patel, but again, the SAG gave him a best SUPPORTING nomination, and I don’t really know the “criteria” for the Academy and how it differentiates between a lead and a supporting role versus how the SAG does. I mean, Judi Dench WON Best Supporting Actress for _Shakespeare in Love_, and she was onscreen for what, only eight minutes total? Is eight minutes REALLY worth a whole nomination (especially when it was for the kind of role she’s often cast as, a caricature of herself almost)? Dev was onscreen for more than eight minutes, yes, but most of the movie is flashbacks, so if you’re going by screentime and hours of work put in, he probably had less to do than the two kids playing his younger self.

But how is _Slumdog Millionaire_ antagonistic to Bush? I can see why, but I’m curious why YOU think- political commentary is not the first, second, or even third kind of commentary popping into my head when I think of the movie.

And I loved _The Wrestler_, so I wouldn’t mind that,

but Sean Penn has a better chance, I think, if only because the part he played is so closely politically aligned with most of Hollywood, and Hollywood has been really really politically minded for a few years now – like, to a kind of bonkers degree.

I mean, if Rourke wins, it’ll be mostly about acting but somewhat about hype. If RDJ wins, it’ll be mostly about acting but somewhat about good business. But if Sean Penn wins or the Slumdog Millionaire guy wins (is there a Slumdog Millionaire guy worth nominating?), it’s mostly about acting, but somewhat because of politics – Hollywood trying to reinforce to the world that it is antagonistic to President and the cultural presumptions he represents.

Here’s my two cents: I don’t think Heath, if he gets nominated, has any chance at losing. Between his loss for _Brokeback Mountain_ and his death, I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t be given the Oscar. I think Phillip Seymore-Hoffman could get nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his role in _Doubt_; and since he’s already won a Best Actor award, the Academy wouldn’t feel too terrible about snuffing him there in favor of Heath, even though _Doubt_ is definitely in a genre they’re more comfortable with giving awards too. Michael Sheen MAY get a nod in the category, too, for his role in _Frost/Nixon_- or at least I hope so, since I think that was just an amazing ensemble and it deserves lots of props. Dev Patel from _Slumdog Millionaire_ got the SAG nomination, but I honestly don’t think he deserves it- I’d rather see John Malkovich for _Changeling_ get nominated.

But, overall, again, I don’t think anyone else has a chance against Heath in that category.