Comments on: The Blockbuster Bell Curve: Are we running out of good movies, too?

By: sir jorge

sir jorge — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 22:06:01 +0000

if afi is the measure, then i don’t want anything to do with this

By: Vix

Vix — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 06:52:20 +0000

How about the impact of generational (re-)release? Some of us were teens in the 1970s and saw “Star Wars” in a cinema, but had to re-rent on DVD so our kids could catch up on the plot AND take them to see the new episodes. I imagine there’d be a similar impact from converting TV shows to movies (e.g. “Starsky & Hutch” and “Bewitched”) as well as remakes (e.g. “King Kong”, and “Journey to the Centre of the Earth”). How about Director’s Cuts?

By: SamLowry

SamLowry — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 17:42:12 +0000

If you want to equate popularity with greatness, then I guess High School Musical 3 is the greatest story every put on film…at least this week.

Perhaps the best way to restrain such fervid fanboyism is to make the IMDB poll run like the US Postal Service: No one can cast a vote until 20 years after the film’s release. If the Postal Service had no such constraint in place, philatelists would have to deal with stamps featuring the Captain and Tennille, Debbie Gibson, Paula Abdul and MC Hammer.

By: Blockbuster Bell Curve | KyleSmithOnline.com

Blockbuster Bell Curve | KyleSmithOnline.com — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 16:53:36 +0000

[...] the IMDb, Overthinking It live up to their name with a detailed statistical analysis of Greatest Movies lists. I don’t think there’s anything especially shocking in their findings, but their graphs [...]

By: lee

lee — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 14:19:46 +0000

Thanks for all the comments everyone, including those calling me out on my lack of statistical (or even basic math) skills. ;-)

And I think Max summed up this whole discussion quite nicely:

“There is simply no way putting an absolute quality value on a film or an album – it’s just too subjective. Every age will have its favourites.”

By: Max Duijsens

Max Duijsens — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 09:16:44 +0000

Being a metal drummer, math teacher and a bit of a film fan I feel I should add my two cents to this discussion.

On the trend lines: you can fit any line to those bar diagrams: a linear curve, a 2nd (or higher) order polynomial curve, and yes, a bell curve too. A bell curve is not a polynomial curve. A bell curve will drop off to zero far from the mean value, whereas a polynomial curve will shoot towards infinity at a certain point. So choosing a bell-curve means you assume a drop-off at a certain point. A high order (6th is the highest in Excel) polynome will probably give you the best fit, but might not make sense if you want to extrapolate towards the future.
All of this doesn’t really matter, because the point is of course how WELL does a trend line fit? Excel can give you the value of ‘R-squared’. 0 being no fit, 1 a perfect fit – so the closer to one, the better it fits. Try some different types of curves in Excel and see which has the best fit.

On pop/rock then: I’ve been a rock/metal fan since ’79 and I _have_ noticed an “impressionable age” correlation. My idea is that the music someone loves when they’re about 16 will stay with them forever. I’ve ‘tested’ this with several of my friends and some other people at birthday parties, and it seems to stay true. However, I’ve also noted that my taste broadens: in years and in genre. So now I like anything from 1967 Jimi Hendrix’s pop/rock to 2008 Krisiun’s brutal death metal. With my band we try to mix what I liked when I was 16 with what I like best of the current albums.

On films then finally (people still with me? :-)
It was definitely with Empire Strikes Back in 1980 (when I was 9) that I fell in love with Star Wars – and I still like it. I still see a lot of films, but seldom will get as excited as I was back then. This supports the “impressionable age” theory, though I’m not sure what age that would be.

So summarising: with rock/pop and films I think it’s all very subjective and dependable on the person’s age when they fell in love with a certain album or film. You see that with the generally older AFI people who like the older films, and with the fanboys who are having their peak now. And you can see the effect of mixing those two in the IMDB top 250. The AFI bell curve with an added fanboy flaring at the end.
There is simply no way putting an absolute quality value on a film or an album – it’s just too subjective. Every age will have it’s favourites.

And math won’t help you with that. :-D

By: Paul

Paul — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 23:35:58 +0000

Are there lists like this for video games and novels? I think it would be interesting to see if the distribution holds true for those formats as well.

By: kyle walker

kyle walker — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 23:09:52 +0000

how can you say films like sin city, the pretige and others dont deserve to be classed as some of the greatest films ever simply because you don’t agree, if the majority of the public believe these films to be deserving of such status, then that surely means they are that good. Basically if the majority of the public believe a film to be iconic then it is even if just for the reason that so many people like it.

By: extreme81

extreme81 — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 22:37:10 +0000

yeah, i agree with the Doctor on this one, in terms of finding a film to watch i would rather use the IMDB’s top 250, just in terms of watchability alone. I trust more of what a regular person recommends instead of what a bloated pretentious film snob thinks is great because what they recommend is usually some artsy snorefest that a regular person cannot relate to. And as for the Godfather, it is a good movie, but its one of those movies that people say is the greatest just because everyone else says its the greatest even if they don’t think it is. If anyone doesnt think the Godfather is the greatest then they get about a hundred people bitching at them, as I’m sure i will for even mentioning this.

By: CallingBullshit

CallingBullshit — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 09:12:32 +0000

Standard deviation.

Look it up.